It's 3AM ... Israel attacks Iran ...

Ladies & Gentlemen ... It's 3AM EST. The President finally calls Obama after informing McCain four hours ago.

It is October 28, 2008. Israel started to attack Iran six hours earlier. Half of their planes were shot down by Iranian newly installed Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missiles. Many other planes had to make emergency landings on U.S. airfields in Iraq and Kuwait.

The S-300 has a range far superior to that of the US Patriot system, experts say. It can also shoot down U.S. cruise and ballistic missiles. Fortunately, all were used during the Israeli attack.

It's 3AM EST. So far, the media learnt two hours ago that something was going on, but no specifics. Al-Jazeera sends the first live images from Iran. Obama's team have been trying to call the Whitehouse for the last hour and a half, but the President is hiding in a bunker in Florida.

It's 3AM EST. Iran reacts ... medium range missiles are send into Israel. Most are shot down by U.S. Patriot systems in Iraq & Kuwait. Others are shot down by Israeli anti-ballistic missiles, the Arrow-2. However, two missiles score a direct hit on Israeli territory, killing 5 people, and one lands in the West-Bank, killing some sheep.

Iran sends short range missiles into U.S. bases in Iraq & Kuwait, and the U.S. airbase of Incirlik in Turkey. Most are shot down, some hit target. There are casualties among U.S. service men and women. Iran also sends short range missiles into oil installations in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Most hit target. All three countries will declare war within the next couple of hours.

Bush' phone call to Obama lasts only 5 minutes. The President has a very upbeat tone in his voice while echoing the 'sad' news. The neo-cons did it for him again ! It's difficult for Bush to hide his excitement. Israel knew that the timing would be make a lot of enemies in Congress, and wanted delay the strike until after the U.S. elections, but Cheney warned them the U.S. would only support an October Surprise. Obama was not very surprised ... he read this article back in September.

During the following days, the President will ask Congress to declare War on Iran. Iran started to send its Revolutionary Guard throughout the Persian Gulf in small boats to attack shipping lanes, and the country virtually closes the Strait of Hormuz with its anti-shipping missiles. The President will order attacks on Iran's Revolutionary Guard installations & units. The U.S. Navy was well prepared. Two more Carrier Groups than normal were sent to the Gulf region in September and arrived just on time for the October Surprise.

However, all oil shipments from the Gulf region will stop for at least six weeks. Overnight, the crude price will jump from $108 to over $250, which will translate into gas prices of around $7 per gallon.

During the following days, the President will finish the job the Israeli's started. Iran will be hit by bunker busting bombs and numerous cruise missiles. U.S. Marines will land around 'Bandar Abbas' and 'Jask' to drive the Iranians off the Strait of Hormuz. Both places will be remembered long after the October Surprise. Not all will go as planned by the neo-cons. But in the end, the Marines will accomplice their goals anyway.

In the mean time, Iranian supported Shiites will rise up in Iraq, putting the country back into chaos. In Lebanon, Hezbollah overthrows the government, takes over the country, and starts new attacks on Israel. Iran will not send its last remaining medium range missiles into Israel, but into Turkey and Greece instead. Both countries will invoke the NATO clause, making this an attack on all NATO countries.

Russia will declare its support for Iran. All natural gas and oil shipments to Europe will be stopped. Russia will send tanks back into the state of Georgia to 'secure' the oil pipeline running from the Caucasus to the Georgian Black sea port of Batumi.

For the past years, Russia has been handing out Russian passports to the 52% Russian speaking Ukrainian citizens of the Crimea. The Crimea was added to the Ukraine in 1954 as a gift from Khrushchev. The Ukraine kept the territory at its independence from the USSR in 1991, but the Russian Federation was allowed to keep its (only all year ice-free) Naval port of Sevastopol.

In a perfect repeat of the Georgian occupation earlier in the year, Russian separatists in the Crimea will declare their independence from the Ukraine. Citing Ukrainian aggression towards its citizens, and national security, Russia will invade the Crimea two days after the Israeli attack on Iran. The neo-cons in Washington wouldn't wanted this any other way ! The Ukraine has no other choice than to declare war on Russia, the U.S. will be too busy to help its friends and allies in eastern Europe.

While turning the globe, Lieberman will be starting to get frustrated with Sarah Palin. After six attempts, she still points to Italy when asked about the Crimea. McCain will be asking if the missile defense shield has been activated in Czechoslovakia?

On the Friday before the elections, Congress will declare war in Iran. Obama has no choice other than to vote in favor. During time of war there is only one country and one President. Opposition is not allowed. That same day, gas prices will reach $8 per gallon, and the dollar falls 50% vs the Euro and the Pound. Venezuela stops all shipments of oil to the U.S. and Canada in support of Iran and Russia, and start selling its oil to Europe and China for Euro's.

Gas stations in eastern Canada and New England will be out of gas by the end of the weekend before the elections, because oil imports from the Middle East and Venezuela will dry up quick. Canada provides most of the U.S. foreign oil, but all pipelines run south from Alberta, and there is only one small pipeline to provide some oil to the eastern provinces and the Atlantic states. This, by far, is not enough to supply their needs.

Europe is a bit more lucky. Rotterdam (the largest sea port in the world) has (by law) a natural gas and oil storage capacity of at least three months for the entire EU's needs. Many European countries will reactivate the draft and call up their troops over the coming weeks, but they will find it very difficult to arm them. A lot of the Cold War era military equipment has been destroyed or sold to developing countries, and the best stuff is located with their professional troops in Afghanistan. But there is no political will to actually use any military force in Iran or the Ukraine anyway. The U.S. might have kept a lot of equipment in storage, but it's far away from any conflict area's.

Ladies & Gentlemen ... now is the time to think how to react to such an October Surprise. If this situation is discussed in advance, it would take the surprise out of the October Surprise, and it might bring the neo-cons & Lieberman to other thoughts?

If the October Surprise is not such a big surprise anymore, will it still bring 10% extra of independents to the McCain site? Or will there be a backlash against the McCain ticket?

What would be the best way for Obama to react?

How would Americans vote with 7 dollar gas prices? How would Americans vote with a new oil, dollar, and full economic crisis? And how would Americans vote with terrorist actions by various groups throughout the world?

Personally, I wouldn't mind if President Obama (and/or Israel) would blow Iran to hell when there is a clear and present nuclear danger coming from Iran. However, U.S. intelligence rapports clearly stated that Iran has suspended its nuclear program. In any case, Iran is still years away from being able to make a nuclear weapon.

In other words, any attack on Iran would be clearly a blatant attempt to influence the U.S. elections and nothing else. If President Obama concludes that there is clear evidence Iran is about to assemble nuclear weapons, I am sure he will throw everything he has to eliminate that threat, despite the consequences mentioned above. However, this evidence is very much missing at this time.

Please, remember this article by the end of October, and enjoy the discussions while you can.